Thursday, January 28, 2010

Reader Question: Talking 2010 Draft

With the season over and Miami's roster needing help in very specific areas, it's a good time to start thinking about the 2010 Draft.

Here's a question a reader sent in:

With the draft coming up, some are speculating that the Phins might get a chance to pick Rolando McClain ILB with their first overall pick. Is he worth it? If he is off the board do you think Dan Williams NT or Terrence Cody NT would be the next choice? I don't see the Phins picking a WR with their first choice. How likely is it the the Dolphins will get a wide receiver through free agency?

That definitely hits on the major areas of need for this team right now - ILB, NT, and WR.

Of course, some of those needs could be addressed in free agency - particularly ILB and NT. For instance, Miami may be able to make a run at Karlos Dansby who would immediately push Akin Ayodele out of the starting lineup. The team could certainly get by with a starting duo of Dansby and Crowder for a couple of years, but Dansby won't come cheap and he is 29 years old.

At NT, Jason Ferguson recently said that his return is still up in the air. It would be great to re-sign him to a one-year deal, but regardless, the team should also explore signing one of the top NT in free agency like Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, Aubrayo Franklin, or Ryan Pickett. Signing any of those guys to pair with Soliai and/or Ferguson would not only be a great boost to the defense, but it would take away the need to use a draft pick on one of the premier NT prospects in this draft, freeing up that choice to be used elsewhere like at OLB or WR.

But whether the Phins sign Dansby or not, Rolando McClain is definitely worthy of being picked at the #12 spot. He has everything this regime looks for in a player - he's big, fast, and has a ton of experience in college, even for a junior. If he's available, it's hard to see Miami passing on him, unless they get a tremendous offer to trade down. And even if Miami was to trade down only two or three picks with a team looking to get in position to snag a top QB, McClain might stay on the board into the mid-teens. That would be the ultimate win-win situation.

As for Williams and Cody, assuming the team didn't address this need in free agency, I still don't think either is worth taking so high in the draft. In fact, I have a feeling one or both of them may still be available when Miami picks in the second round, so it would not make sense to reach this greatly for either one. They both have serious conditioning issues that make them prime boom or bust candidates. With the 12th pick, Miami needs much more of a sure thing. And if they can get Ferguson back for one more year, they can put off this need until next year.

Unfortunately, I don't see Miami taking a WR in the first round either. I say "unfortunately" because Parcells and Ireland seem to be stuck in the mindset that they can simply throw a receiving corps together out of undrafted free agents and a gaggle of #3 guys. Well, it doesn't work that way. If this team wants a stud receiver (and it should) it needs to take the risk and invest highly in one. And there may not be a riskier pick at WR than Dez Bryant, but if he's sitting there when Miami picks, I would hate to seem them pass him over.

WR help is just not going to come via free agency. All the best WRs will be restricted free agents this year, which means they probably aren't leaving their current teams, and if they do, whatever team gets them will likely be overpaying by a sizable amount. The most attractive unrestricted free agent WR is probably Antonio Bryant, and while I wouldn't mind seeing him in Miami for the right price, he's 29 years old, and he showed this year that he isn't a true #1 guy. Parcells and Ireland are going to have to come to terms with reality and get over their ridiculous fear of drafting a WR early.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Brett Favre's season-ending plays

It's no secret that I detest Brett Favre. There's absolutely nothing likable about him. So I was obviously overjoyed to see him go down in the manner he did tonight against the Saints. Which got me thinking to how he ended his season the year before...and the year before that.

So without further ado, here's a fond look back on the last play of Brett Favre's last three seasons:

2007, choking away the NFC Championship game versus the Giants with a classic Favre-INT:




2008, getting absolutely destroyed by Yeremiah Bell as the Dolphins go into New York and take the AFC East crown:


2009, once again choking away the NFC Championship with a game-deciding INT late:

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Mike Nolan hired as defensive coordinator

After missing out on their first choices for defensive coordinator, the Dolphins received a bit of a gift on Monday when Mike Nolan parted ways with the Denver Broncos after spending just one year there.

Nolan's departure from Denver was spurred on when Miami sent a written request to interview him for the open DC position. Because this was a lateral move, Denver was not required to consent. But head coach Josh McDaniels asked Nolan where he would rather be, and when Nolan said Miami, the two parties agreed to part ways.

And just a day later he was officially hired as Miami's new defensive coordinator.

Nolan runs an aggressive 3-4 scheme, so Miami will be able to maintain the basic structure of its defense.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Dolphins stadium gets (another) new name

Last year's partnership and stadium naming venture with Landshark Lager was set to expire before the Pro Bowl.

So it's no surprise that the Dolphins organization has already lined up its next naming-rights sponsor.

Sun Life Financial will pay about $7.5 million a year over the next five years in return for the Dolphins naming their stadium Sun Life Stadium. Sun Life is an international financial company dealing primarily with life insurance.

The name is fitting given South Florida's abundant sunshine, and in my opinion it works better than Landshark Stadium.

At the very least, the new income source should help stem the rise of ticket prices.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 Final)

Now that the season is over, it's time to start rolling out some reviews.

First up is the special teams coverage.

Jason Allen finished off the season very strong, notching 7 special teams tackles in the last four games. He finished second on the team behind only Nathan Jones, who had a spectacular year on kick coverage, racking up 19 tackles and a forced fumble. Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent so hopefully the team can get him re-signed before he hits the open market.

Early on, the coverage teams were forced to overcome the loss of Patrick Cobbs, who was a leader of these units last year. Surprisingly, they were able to step up in his absence with little trouble. Even Cameron Wake, who was a big question mark in terms of special teams ability, stepped up and contributed 11 STTs. Lex Hilliard also proved his worth with 14 STTs.

Erik Walden was really the only player who I noticed taking a bit of a step back in kick coverage, and much of that can be attributed to him being hurt for a long stretch.

Here's how all the players stack up according to special teams tackles:


Tkl
Ast
Comb
FF
Jason Allen
14
1
15

Charlie Anderson
7
2
9

Akin Ayodele
1

1

Greg Camarillo
1

1

Dan Carpenter
1
1
2

Chris Clemons
6
1
7

Patrick Cobbs
1

1

Tyrone Culver
9
3
12

Vontae Davis
4

4

John Denney
6
1
7

Brandon Fields
2

2

J.D. Folsom
1

1

Brian Hartline
5

5

Joey Haynos

1
1

Lex Hilliard
12
2
14

Nathan Jones
15
4
19
1
Reggie Torbor
8
2
10

Cameron Wake
9
2
11

Erik Walden
7
1
8

Gibril Wilson
3

3

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Bill Sheridan likely to become LB coach

Michael Lombardi is reporting that former Giants' defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan is expected to join the Dolphins' coaching staff as the linebackers coach.

Sheridan was the Giants' linebackers coach for four seasons before being promoted to defensive coordinator last season.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Pasqualoni fired

Miami continues to shed defensive coaches this month - this time it's the defensive coordinator, Paul Pasqualoni.

While not exactly a surprise, this move certainly wasn't written in stone either. The defense wilted down the stretch, that's for sure. But the defense as a whole performed at a level identical to that in 2008 - 3.0% DVOA in 2008 compared to 3.1% DVOA in 2009. In fact, this year's team actually played better down the stretch than the '08 version according to the numbers. And the reason should be clear. The 'D' in DVOA stands for "defense-adjusted." Well, Miami played the third hardest schedule in the NFL this year (7.9% DVOA) compared to the 29th hardest schedule in 2008 (-5.4% DVOA). That should explain a lot right there.

The defense really didn't play much different. The opponents just got a lot harder.

And there is something to be said for continuity. It's highly disruptive to be cycling so many coaches and coordinators through the organization at this pace. It's a lot easier to get improvement from players young and old when they are given the time to get comfortable in a certain scheme and learn its nuances instead of having to pick up a brand new system every other year.

Hopefully, the new defensive coordinator employs a similar 3-4 scheme. At this point, the names being discussed as possible replacements include Al Groh, Romeo Crennel, and Mike Zimmer.

Ten players signed

After the season is over, you always see teams sign a handful of players to futures contracts which expand the roster to its larger offseason size in preparation for spring OTAs.

So far this year, Miami has signed ten players.

Six of the players signed were those on Miami's practice squad to end the year: WR Julius Pruit, TE John Nalbone, RB Tristan Davis, S Nate Ness, WR Taurus Johnson, and G Ray Feinga.

Miami also signed three former CFL players: WR Ryan Grice-Mullen, FB Rolly Lumbala, and G Dimitri Tsoumpas.

To cap off the flurry of signings, Miami also added LB Brian Johnston. Johnston was a seventh-round draft pick of the Chiefs in 2008. He appeared in nine games that year, but was out of football this season.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Miami loses two LB coaches

Miami has lost two of its defensive coaches to the college ranks.

Outside linebackers coach Jim Reid left the Dolphins to become the defensive coordinator at the University of Virginia.

Inside linebackers coach George Edwards left to become the defensive coordinator at the University of Florida.

Immediate speculation in the wake of these two losses has centered around former Virginia head coach Al Groh possibly joining the Dolphins as a linebacker coach. Groh has previously worked under Bill Parcells and is well-versed in the 3-4 defensive scheme.

In other coaching news, the Miami coaching staff has been selected to coach one of the teams in the Senior Bowl.

While this is partly the result of finishing with a poor record, the opportunity to see these college players up close in the Dolphins' system will give the coaching staff a leg up on scouting for the upcoming draft.

The Senior Bowl will take place on January 30.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Week 17 vs. Steelers Prediction

This is likely the last we will be seeing of the Dolphins until training camp rolls around again, so we had better enjoy this game.

A reader asks:

The last time these two teams faced each other the Steelers won 3-0. Should we expect a similar outcome on Sunday? Which is the better team?

Ah, the famous Mud Bowl. I remember that game quite well as it was some of the most awful, sloppy, meaningless football I've ever seen. And yet it was still a very exciting game to watch because everyone knew the game would come down to a single positive play, but no one knew when it would come and everyone knew there would be only one such play. It was like Russian roulette, but instead of a bullet there was a non-botched field goal. Amazingly, it took almost all sixty minutes in regulation to get to that one play.

So unless there is a torrential downpour in Miami on Sunday and the team absolutely botches its field management like the Steelers did in 2007 (seriously Pittsburgh, you're going to truck in new sod and just lay it down on top of the old crap the night before the game and hope that it doesn't turn into a giant swamp?), this game won't be like that one.

In fact, I'm fairly confident that Miami's defense couldn't hold any team in the league to just three points right now.

The Steelers are flat-out the better team. Sure, Miami's running game is better than theirs. As is their special teams. But Pittsburgh's dug themselves out of a five-game losing streak, their passing game is on fire, and Miami's secondary will be hard-pressed to slow it down enough to give the offense a chance to keep the team in the game.

I'm picking the Steelers to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 10-5.

Although Miami is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, their chances are microscopic. But hey, as long as they aren't officially out, I won't count them out.