Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Steelers-Dolphins: Game Analysis


Sadly, Ricky Williams' return to the football field came and went in a heartbeat as he suffered a torn pectoral muscle that will sideline him for the rest of the season. It will take four months of recovery and rehab before Ricky is completely healed. This development severely hampers the Dolphins ability to trade Ricky in the offseason since he can't be showcased. While that is certainly unfortunate, I've made the case before that it can still be beneficial for the team to hold onto Ricky going into next season. We don't know how far along Ronnie Brown will be in his recovery when next season begins and Jesse Chatman could potentially leave via free agency. Keeping Ricky around during the beginning of next season would give Miami another chance to showcase him before trying to trade him before the Week 6 trade deadline.

Hopefully, Samkon Gado didn't stray very far after Miami released him to make room for Ricky.

As for the game itself (which I am dubbing the "Bog Bowl"), Steve Young said it best when he declared that nothing can be concluded from this game. Pittsburgh should be ashamed of that field and the condition it was in. There is no excuse for why Heinz Field does not have Field Turf.

Because the field conditions negate any substantive review of individual performances, let me keep this very brief:
  • John Beck played very well despite the weather. He showed a lot of poise in the pocket and made some tremendous decisions with the football.
  • Joey Porter looks like he is finally rounding into shape after his latest knee surgery. He was around the ball all night.
  • Will Allen continues his strong play, and he showed a nice ability to rush the QB on CB blitzes. I've always thought that Will Allen was a positive asset for this team and that he could help this team in the future, and finally other people seem to be coming around to that opinion as well.
  • I know it was soaking out there, but these receivers continue to drop the ball. They have to got to step up and give Beck some help.
  • The entire team showed some character by putting in maximum effort during a game which they could have taken easily and not exerted themselves for. This team isn't giving up, and I think that Cam Cameron deserves some amount of credit for keeping this team united despite being winless this far into the season.
Take those for what they are worth.

I'm really looking forward to this week's game against the Jets. It's the only game left on Miami's schedule which I think they have an above average chance of winning.

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Week 12 Injury Reports

STATUS REPORT
Out: LB Zach Thomas (migraine)
Doubtful: DE Matt Roth (groin)
Questionable: RB Jesse Chatman (ankle)
Probable: NT Keith Traylor (ankle)

PRACTICE REPORTS
Did not participate in practice
  • LB Zach Thomas (Wed, Thurs, Fri)
  • DE Matt Roth (Wed, Thurs, Fri)
Limited participation in practice
  • RB Jesse Chatman (Wed, Thurs, Fri)
  • NT Keith Traylor (Wed, Thurs, Fri)

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Eagles-Dolphins: Game Analysis


The first half of this game was pretty exciting to watch as a Dolphins fan...and then the second half rolled around. I felt pretty good about Miami notching its first win when they went in at halftime. McNabb had been knocked out and replaced by A.J. "Pick-Six" Feeley. The defense was playing well and the young guys on the team were all stepping up. Surely, that's a winning formula.

It is, but only when it's applied for a whole game. Once again (and I sound like a broken record) Miami failed to maintain its play over the course of an entire football game.

Let's get into the good and bad:

The Bad
Beck's accuracy - Obviously, this is an area that can be corrected, and an area that Beck has proven to be adept at in the past, but for this game he was inaccurate on many of his passes. The rain and his nerves clearly played some part, but he will have to pay particular attention to this facet of his game during practice this week.

3rd down efficiency - 2/11...pitiful.

Run defense - The run defense collapsed again in the second half, allowing Westbrook to run roughshod over them. Philly averaged 5.2 yards per carry for the game. Come the second half of games, I have absolutely no confidence in this defense to make any kind of stop whatsoever.

4th and goal play call - That pitch back to Jesse Chatman was truly abysmal. You never never never pitch the ball backwards 5 yards from the one yard line in an attempt to score, especially on fourth down. I have no problem with the decision to go for the TD in that situation. But if you are going to go for it, give yourself a chance. Pound it straight up the middle with Chatman and let him try to jump over the pile or burrow his way under. The line has been playing well; they should be expected to be able to get a half yard of push. That was the nail in this game's coffin, and it could have been avoided.

The Good
Ted Ginn Jr. - Teddy had a nice little game for himself this week. He finally had a TD return that wasn't called back and he proved to be Beck's favorite target, making some nice catches downfield. It's good to see that Beck and Ginn had some immediate chemistry since that will be the tandem that is going to be fueling this offense for some time.

Beck's poise - While his accuracy needed work, Beck did show tremendous poise and composure in the pocket, particularly for a rookie making his first start. That's something that can't be taught, so to see him display it from the get-go is a great sight. The plays that stand out in my mind were his 3 yard scramble for a first down and his audible at the line into a running play that picked up big yardage.

Jason Allen - Seriously, Jason Allen had a great game. I've always said the team needs to give this kid at least 2 full seasons before making any judgments on his potential, and it finally looks like he's settling in. Not coincidentally, this marked improvement comes on the heels of the coaches' decision to make him a starter. Let's see if he can keep this play up for the rest of the year. If he can, I think he gets a shot at starting next season. At the very least, he can play well enough to avoid being released after the season.

==========

Play of the Game - The 4th and goal pitch play to Jesse Chatman. Ugh.

Player of the Game - Brian Westbrook. 32 carries for 148 yards. He powered the Philly offense for the entire game and was the key player when it came to closing the door in Miami's face at the end of the game.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Eagles-Dolphins: Week 11 Matchup

Here's a rundown of Miami's week eleven matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles:

Where: Lincoln Financial Field
When: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Injuries:
  • Philadelphia: Questionable - RB Brian Westbrook; Probable - WR Jason Avant, WR Kevin Curtis, C Jon Dorenbos, CB William James, DT Mike Patterson
  • Miami: Out - DE Matt Roth, LB Zach Thomas; Probable - DE Jason Taylor, NT Keith Traylor
Positional Breakdown:

Eagles
Unit
Dolphins
+
Quarterbacks

+
Running backs

+
Receivers

+
Offensive line

+
Defensive line

+
Linebackers

+
Secondary


Special teams
+
+
Coaches

+
Overall Advantage


Keys to the Game:
  1. Establish a running game to keep the pressure off John Beck. Jesse Chatman will have to continue his stretch of tough running, in order to eat up clock and prevent the game from devolving into a high-scoring game where Beck would be forced to pass on a majority of downs.
  2. Maintain awareness of blitzes. Everyone knows Philly loves to blitz, but they are still damn good at doing it. Miami's O-line has been very good at protecting the QB so far, but this will be a different kind of test. Miami should keep a tight end back to chip block or a running back in the backfield to pick up a free blitzer. Either way, Beck must keep his wits around him and maintain ball security.
  3. Open up the play book. When Beck does pass, let him air it out early to open up some running lanes and possibly jump out to an early lead.
Key Players:
  • Philadelphia: Trent Cole - a tremendous pass rusher, Cole will have the responsibility of both pressuring Beck and containing Chatman on the ground.
  • Miami: Jesse Chatman - Chatman needs to be Beck's best friend on Sunday, gaining significant yardage on first and second downs so that the rookie QB doesn't have to face many third-and-longs, especially in critical situations.
Prediction:
Philly wins 23-15.

Tillman to IR; Harris activated

This is news from the past week that I never got a chance to post, but S Travares Tillman was placed on IR with a knee injury. He had knee surgery in early October, but his recovery was coming along very slowly. This is the third safety to be placed on IR this season for Miami. In all honesty, Tillman was pretty poor even when he was healthy. Hopefully the team will cut ties with him for good after this season. He just can't offer this team anything at this point.


S Tuff Harris (that's him getting some incredible air in the picture above) was activated from the practice squad to take Tillman's place. Harris played in all four preseason games, finishing with 12 tackles (11 solo) and one pass defended.


K Matt Prater was signed to the practice squad spot vacated by Harris. Prater played in two games this season for the Falcons. He was 1/4 on FGs. He had 4 kickoffs averaging 71.2 yards with 3 touchbacks.

Week 11 Friday Injury/Status Reports

STATUS REPORT
Out: DE Matt Roth (groin), LB Zach Thomas (migraine)
Probable: DE Jason Taylor (ankle), NT Keith Traylor (ankle)

INJURY REPORT
Did not participate in practice
  • DE Matt Roth
  • LB Zach Thomas
Full participation in practice
  • DE Jason Taylor
  • NT Keith Traylor

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Week 11 Wednesday/Thursday Injury Reports

WEDNESDAY
Did not participate in practice
  • DE Matt Roth (groin)
  • DT Paul Soliai (illness)
  • DE Jason Taylor (ankle)
  • LB Zach Thomas (migraine)
Limited participation in practice
  • NT Keith Traylor (ankle)
THURSDAY
Did not participate in practice
  • DE Matt Roth (groin)
  • LB Zach Thomas (migraine)
Full participation in practice
  • DT Paul Soliai
  • DE Jason Taylor
  • NT Keith Traylor

Welcome Back, Ricky

Can't you just picture it: The League announces that Ricky Williams has been reinstated, and suddenly the delightful tune courtesy of a classic 70's television sitcom starts playing all throughout South Florida.

It goes a little something like this:

"Welcome back, your dreams were your ticket out.
Welcome back to that same old place that you laughed about.
Well the names have all changed since you hung around,
But those dreams have remained and they're turned around.

Who'd have thought they'd lead ya
Back here where we need ya

Yeah we tease him a lot cause we've got him on the spot,
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back, welcome back."

What a fitting jingle for the situation.

Everybody, it's time to open up your arms wide and welcome back Ricky Williams.

I have always been an ardent supporter of Ricky - not just as a player, but as a person. (You can read my impassioned defense of Ricky following his most recent suspension here.)

Most people will disregard him as some combination of foolish, selfish, or cowardly. I would call those people callous and insensitive.

Because Social Anxiety is a less tangible disorder than say alcoholism or the abuse of pain killers (anyone remember that shining episode of Brett Favre's unsullied career?) critics were quick to mercilessly jump all over Ricky for the decisions he made. Granted, I can't defend the way that Ricky abruptly left the team with no warning, but the decision itself should be free from criticism.

It was obvious that from the very beginning of Ricky's pro career, he was essentially swept along by a tidal wave that he couldn't stop. He wasn't comfortable with the situations he was being placed in, but he couldn't really stop the process either. Eventually it just became too much for him to handle, and he made the decision that was best for his own mental state.

Now that he's been away from football for an extended period of time, he seems ready to make another entrance. He has said that a return to NFL action is a personal test that he wants to engage in as a way to prove his mental resiliency. Others say he's just doing it for the money. You know what? Both are likely contributing factors to his return.

Miami will have a two-week roster exemption for Ricky as they decide what to do with him. According to ProFootballTalk.com, league sources say that Miami presently intends on welcoming him back.

And that is absolutely the correct decision - for several reasons.

First, the trade deadline has already passed, meaning that Miami can no longer get value for Ricky unless they hold on to him into the offseason. They can bring him back this year and let him work himself back into playing shape, and then gradually showcase him during the last month of the season. Once the offseason rolls around, the front office can explore every available option to trade him on or before draft day. At this point, I would gladly accept a seventh-round pick for Ricky, but I would not be surprised at all to see some team offer up as high as a fifth-round pick for him.

Secondly, even if no team makes a deal for Ricky in the offseason, it will still be worthwhile to hold onto him. Ronnie Brown recently tore his ACL - an injury that requires a rehabilitation period of approximately a year or more before the player is capable of their normal performance. Brown was the best running back in the NFL this season before going down with the injury (yes, better than Adrian Peterson) and the Dolphins cannot afford to rush him back onto the field and risk further complications. With Ricky on the squad, Brown could safely be placed on the PUP list for the first six weeks of the season to continue his rehab unabated, leaving Jesse Chatman as the starter with Ricky backing him up. That is still a very capable duo.

Like every season, the attrition rate on running backs will strike some team early in the year, and they will become desperate for help at the position (see: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, St. Louis this season). One of those teams would likely be interested in Ricky, and the Dolphins would be able to use that team's desperation to nab a draft pick before the trading deadline. Ronnie Brown would be able to come back after Week 6, and the Brown-Chatman combination would resume.

Thirdly, as I have mentioned before, Miami must avoid going 0-16 and the inescapable shame that would accompany that feat. If Ricky can help the team win a game, he should remain on the squad.

Finally, Ricky only costs the team around the league minimum in salary. For a player of his caliber, that is a bargain. There is no financial reason not to keep him.

Oh yeah, and if he were to be released and the Patriots picked him up and rode him to another Super Bowl victory, I think I would cry myself to sleep for a long time.

I'm sure most of you are waiting to gnash your teeth and rip into Ricky for the umpteenth time, but before you do that I am simply asking you to read the article that I linked to above.

Then all you have to do is hum that little ditty, open your arms, and welcome back Ricky.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

The Beck Era Begins This Sunday

A new era of Miami Dolphins football will officially begin on November 18, 2007 when John Beck takes his first snap from under center as the starting quarterback of the Fins.

Cam Cameron announced his decision today, and he said the plan going forward is for Beck to start for the remainder of the season, barring any injuries. From here on, he will be getting 80% of the snaps with the first team in practice.

I previously stated that I would not have had any problem with Cameron choosing to sit Beck for the rest of the season. After all, I still trust his ability to judge and develop quarterbacks. Thusly, I fully trust Cam's decision to hand over the team to Beck with seven games remaining on the schedule. If Cam and the coaching staff think that he's ready, then I'm betting he's ready.

And I don't want to sound like a sensationalist, but this truly does mark the beginning of a new era for Dolphins football. So much of Miami's struggles can be directly linked to the organization's inability to find a competent successor to Dan Marino (the greatest NFL player of all time - yeah, I said it). The last time that the Fins actually invested one of their own draft picks into a rookie quarterback was all the way back in 2001 when they used a 6th round pick on the legendary Josh Heupel (if your response to that was "Josh Who??," you are not alone). Heupel never made it onto the field.

Instead, the team has thrown its valuable draft picks away in return for the cast-offs of other teams. Naturally, the QB situation has rotted.

Here's a look at all the draft picks that have been uselessly traded away in Miami's futile quest for a QB and the stats those players put up while wearing the aqua and orange:
  • 5th round pick for Trent Green (5 starts, 85/141, 987 yards, 5 TDs, 7 INTs, 7 sacks, 2 FUM, 72.6 rating)
  • 2nd round pick for Daunte Culpepper (4 starts, 81/134, 929 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 21 sacks, 3 FUM, 77.0 rating)
  • 6th round pick (and A.J. Feeley) for Cleo Lemon (5 starts, 134/234, 1,335 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs, 15 sacks, 2 FUM, 71.8 rating)
  • 2nd round pick for A.J. Feeley (8 starts, 191/356, 1,893 yards, 11 TDs, 15 INTs, 23 sacks, 10 FUM, 61.7 rating)
  • 2 6th round picks for Cade McNown (didn't get on the field at all)
  • 7th round pick for Sage Rosenfels (1 start, 20/48, 314 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 3 sacks, 2 FUM, 51.9 rating)
So, that's 2 second-round, a fifth-round, 3 sixth-round, and a seventh-round pick for 23 starts with 25 TDs and 32 INTs and a cumulative rating of 68.15 (I just vomited a little). None of those players lasted for more than half a season as the starting QB.

But finally, the team wizened up and used a high draft pick on a QB prospect. John Beck is finally the player that every Fin-fan can rally behind. He's our own. He is going to grow up and develop under the auspices of this team, and if all goes according to plan, he will flourish with this team.

Developing home-grown youngsters from the draft is the proven way to win in today's NFL. Beck's first start is just the beginning of this transformation, but it's also the most important piece of the puzzle.

For Miami, the future begins on Sunday.

BREAKING: Ricky Williams Reinstated

ESPN's Chris Mortenson has been told by sources that the NFL has reinstated Ricky Williams after his 18 month suspension. Ricky had filed for reinstatement on October 1.

The team is in an interesting situation now. The trade deadline has already past, so the Dolphins must either keep him on the roster or release him. If they keep him on the roster, they can try and work out a deal with another team in the offseason.

I am all for stashing him on the roster until the season is over. I'm sure someone would be willing to part with a seventh round pick for Ricky, and the Dolphins may be lucky enough to snag something as high as a fifth-round pick.

Also, remember that Ronnie Brown must make his way back from an ACL tear. He may not be able to go at the beginning of the season. Should Cam Cameron and Randy Mueller welcome Ricky back, they could put Ronnie on the PUP list for the first six weeks and let Jesse Chatman and Ricky form a one-two combination.

[Update]: The NFL released this statement today regarding Williams:
“Ricky Williams was notified this morning by Commissioner Goodell that he has been reinstated as an NFL player. Williams can begin attending team meetings and practicing immediately, but will not be eligible to play in games until Week 12 when the Dolphins play at Pittsburgh (Monday night, November 26). The Dolphins will receive a roster exemption for Williams for up to two weeks when he begins practicing, starting no later than Monday.”
This means that Miami does not have to make a decision immediately regarding Ricky. In my opinion, even if they plan to release him (which I am not in favor of), they should still hold onto him for the entire two week roster exemption. You never know what could happen in that time span. Another one of the team's running backs could get injured, and then room on the roster would open for Ricky. It would also prevent any other team (New England, I'm looking at you) from picking him up early.

In any case, I think the best move would be to keep Ricky for the rest of the season, and let him get back into game shape. Then showcase him during the last month of the season to drum up interest from potential trading partners during the offseason.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Dolphins-Bills: Game Analysis


Sometimes things just don't go your way, and Miami's latest loss, nay the entire season, is proof of that axiom.

This game against the Bills was the closest that Miami has come all season to winning a game. One look at the stats will tell you that they should have won they game. They generally outplayed Buffalo for three quarters...but we all know that a complete game lasts four. And if there's anything that this team routinely fails at, it's finishing out a complete game.

Just for fun (and pain), let's look at some stat comparisons between the Bills and Phins to get a better idea of why this loss is so frustrating:
  • 3rd down efficiency: Buffalo - 2/10, Miami - 9/19
  • Yards per rush: Buffalo - 2.5, Miami - 3.8
  • Turnovers: Buffalo - 1, Miami - 0
  • Time of possession: Buffalo - 23:01, Miami - 36:59
So, judging by those stats alone, one would make the assumption (correctly, I might add) that Buffalo was absolutely inept on offense, particularly running the ball, and could not sustain long drives. One would also note that Miami actually won the turnover battle and avoided turning the ball over at all.

And yet...the team lost.

A lot of people are quick to crucify Cleo Lemon for the outcome, and while he certainly played a significant part in the losing effort, this was not all his fault. Hell, he didn't throw an interception or fumble the ball away. Under those circumstances, with the defense playing stoutly, this team should have been able to win. Yes, he should have known to throw the ball away in the endzone instead of taking a sack and he missed a deep throw to Ginn, but this loss is not entirely Lemon's fault. However, angry fans will make it seem that way so that they can continue to complain about not seeing John Beck. (Disclaimer: I don't think Lemon is the answer either, but I realize that it's not going to make much difference whether Beck starts 5 games or 7 games this season. It is absolutely critical that impatience be avoided when dealing with Beck's development.)

The real culprit in this loss is once again a late game collapse, this time courtesy of both the offense and defense (plus some normal special teams ineptitude).

Here's a quick list of what was good and bad:

The Bad
The WRs - I don't know if it was the playcalling, but the receivers played a horrible game, especially Marty Booker - the most consistent guy of the bunch. He had three critical drops, which is one more than the number of catches he made. Other than a very few occasions, no one was getting open deep. Of the 16 receptions by Miami players, only 5 were by wide receivers.

Cleo Lemon - He really needed to throw that ball away and avoid a safety. He also missed Ginn open downfield, and he resorted to his check-downs more than I would like to see. Still, that very well could be a fault of the playcalling, and at the very least, he didn't turn the ball over.

Penalties - How many more kicks does Ted Ginn Jr. have to return for a TD only to have them called back. He made an impact play, taking it back to the house directly after a Buffalo score, and got the momentum back on Miami's side in a big way, only to have it nullified because of a boneheaded penalty. Miami's coverage and return units are atrocious.

The Good
Jesse Chatman - This guy is a warrior. He puked on the field and went on to put up 124 yards rushing. 'Nuff said.

Will Allen - Did my eyes deceive me, or did Will Allen actually catch a football? It's amazing, I didn't think those two stone blocks could accomplish such a feat. Joking aside, that was a clutch play in the endzone, single-handedly taking points off the board for the Bills.

Joey Porter - JPeezy in the house! Finally, a good game out of the $20 million man. Porter was able to pressure Losman all game and provide solid run support. He recorded 6 tackles and a sack. If he can keep up that kind of play for the rest of the season, the case could be made that he was hampered by that knee injury for the entire first half. If so, he won't be a complete bust. Still, this is only one game out of nine. Let's see if it continues.

==========

Play of the Game - Marshawn Lynch rumblin', bumblin', and stumblin' his way to a TD by churning his way through first, second, and third contact.

Player of the Game - I would say Chatman, except he was on the losing team. I guess by default it goes to Lynch.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Logan added to practice squad


I didn't get around to adding this little bit of news when it happened last week, but the team released TE Buck Ortega from the practice squad and signed RB Stefan Logan to take his place.

Logan (5'6", 180 lbs.) played his college ball at South Dakota but went undrafted. He is a small back who has some similarities with Lorenzo Booker. Here is an excerpt from his profile at Football's Future:
" Logan has the explosiveness to make it in the NFL, in a similar role to Darren Sproles or Dante Hall. He has the all around skills as a runner, receiver, and return man to provide a variety of roles a player of his size has to be capable of. His age and playing at a lower level of competition may keep Logan from being drafted, but he could be a player that makes a team out of training camp."
With the addition of Logan, the practice squad now looks as such:
  1. T Tala Esera
  2. QB Casey Bramlet
  3. S Tuff Harris
  4. RB Stefan Logan
  5. G Marquay Love
  6. LB Kelvin Smith
  7. WR Chandler Williams
  8. T Julius Wilson
  9. WR Marvin Allen

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Dolphins-Bills: Week Ten Matchup

Here's a rundown of Miami's week ten matchup against the Buffalo Bills:

Where: Dolphin Stadium
When: Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

Injuries:
  • Miami: Out - LB Zach Thomas, S Travares Tillman; Probable - NT Keith Traylor
  • Buffalo: Out - TE Matt Murphy, TE Derek Schouman; Questionable - LB John DiGiorgio, QB Trent Edwards, WR Roscoe Parrish, WR Josh Reed, DE Aaron Schobel; Probable - LB Leon Joe, CB Ashton Youboty
Positional Breakdown:

Dolphins
Unit
Bills

Quarterbacks
+

Running backs
+

Receivers
+

Offensive line
+

Defensive line
+

Linebackers
+

Secondary
+

Special teams
+

Coaches
+

Overall Advantage
+

Keys to the Game:
  1. Can the safeties step up in run defense? Zach Thomas won't be playing, so an already weak run defense will struggle more than usual. Cameron Worrell and Jason Allen are starting at the safety spots and they will need to step up into the box in order to effectively stop the run. Marshawn Lynch is adept at reaching the second level of defenses, and it will be up to Worrell and Allen to keep him in front of them and hopefully keep him in front of the linebackers as well.
  2. Can the defensive front seven generate a consistent pass rush against J.P. Losman? The thing that Losman does best is to air out the deep ball, especially to Lee Evans. That requires time in the pocket. His effectiveness diminishes sharply when he has to make quick decisions and short throws. Obviously, the best way to take away this strength and force him into his weaknesses is to pressure him with blitzes. Miami hasn't been successful doing this in the past, but they will need to be able to do it this week if they want to have a chance to contain the Buffalo offense from exploding.
  3. Can Cleo Lemon avoid the early hook? If Cleo Lemon gets yanked from this game in favor of John Beck, chances are that things won't be going to well. If Lemon is careless with the ball and forces the coaches to make a change, the game will most likely be out of reach, regardless of what Beck can do.
Key Players:
  • Miami: DE Jason Taylor - The pressure up front needs to start with Taylor - even if he is just drawing double teams to open up other guys along the line. If he doesn't prove that he is a threat, the Bills won't have to constantly devote a second or third guy to him and they can send more guys out in pass patterns rather than keeping them in to block.
  • Buffalo: RB Marshawn Lynch - Against this porous run defense, Lynch really has an opportunity to shorten the game by grounding out the clock and chunks of yardage at the same time.
Prediction:
This game will be somewhat of a nail-biter. I'd like to think that Miami will be re-energized following its bye week and will be able to take advantage of its home field advantage, but until this team wins, I can't confidently choose them.

Buffalo wins 20-19.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Week 9 Friday Injury Report

INJURY REPORT

Did not participate in practice
  • S Travares Tillman (knee)
  • LB Zach Thomas (migraines)
Full participation in practice
  • NT Keith Traylor (ankle)
STATUS REPORT

Out: LB Zach Thomas, S Travares Tillman
Probable: NT Keith Traylor

Week 9 Thursday Injury Report

Did not participate in practice
  • S Travares Tillman (knee)
Limited participation in practice
  • NT Keith Traylor (ankle)
Fully participated in practice
  • LB Zach Thomas (migraines)

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Perry signed; Abe Wright to IR


LB Abraham Wright was placed on Injured Reserve today with a knee injury. He was inactive for all 8 games this season.

To fill his spot on the roster, the team signed CB Jereme Perry. Perry (6'0", 202 lbs.) was an undrafted free agent of the Cleveland Browns last season. He is 25 years old. He can play both safety and cornerback.

This was his stat line from last season:
==========
Career Stats Tackles Sacks Interceptions Misc
Season Team G
SoloAstTotal
SackYdsL
IntYdsIntTD
DefTDFFumPDSfty
2006Cleveland12
16218
0.00
000
0050
Career12
16218
0.00
000
0050
==========

Week 9 Wednesday Injury Report

Did not participate in practice
  • S Travares Tillman (knee)
Limited participation in practice
  • LB Zach Thomas (migraines)
  • NT Keith Traylor (ankle)
=====

T Joe Toledo returned to practice after spending the entire season on the PUP list. The team has 21 days to decide whether to activate him from the list. If they choose not to, he will miss the remainder of the year.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

To Beck Or Not To Beck


By now, you've all most likely heard of the writers strike that has gone into effect. The Writers Guild of America has suspended work on all ongoing projects, leaving me to weep over the uncertain fates of my favorite shows like Scrubs, The Office, and Late Night with Conan O'Brien. The day just isn't complete without seeing Conan. I guess I'll just have to settle for repeats for now.

So, what does any of this have to do with sports? Well, nothing really - except for the fact that I am officially not a part of the writers strike (that might have something to do with not being a part of the Writers Union) and thus I am able to bestow upon all of you the wonderful gift of my writing.

I can already hear the applause.

And mind you, this won't just be any old pointless and arbitrary writing. No, this will only be the sharpest, most decisive writing available. Isn't that right, gorilla nurse using an old-fashioned abdominal exerciser while listening to "Angel of the Morning" by Juice Newton? (If you are a Conan fan, you probably found that last line to be hilarious; if not, you are probably getting pretty annoyed with this article.)

Okay, enough with the shenanigans. It's time to get down to business.

Last week was the bye week in Miami, and for a team that stands at 0-8, the inevitable questions regarding the quarterback situation began to fly.

Should Cam Cameron stick with Cleo Lemon as the starter or hand the reigns over to rookie John Beck, the guy believed to be the future of this franchise?

For most people, the obvious answer is to give Beck the job and let the evaluation process begin. After all, this season is a lost cause, and Miami will most certainly have a top three draft pick come April. If Beck isn't the answer, the team will need to consider taking one of the top QBs in the draft, right?

Wrong.

The understandable rage of being winless halfway through the season has everyone thinking irrationally. Change for the sake of change is not the answer in this situation. Sure, everyone is dying to see what Beck brings to the table. I know I am. We also know that Lemon has probably shown us the extent of his abilities. He's a solid backup, but certainly not a long-term answer at QB for this team.

But let's think about this in a more reasoned manner. As the third-string QB entering the season, Beck worked solely with the scout team offense in practice. When Trent Green was lost for the season with a concussion in Week 5, Beck became the backup and started to receive approximately 20% of the first-team reps in practice. Then, after the Giants game, Cameron declared that Beck and Lemon would split reps with the first-team 50/50. Of course, the team only practiced once during the bye week.

So what does that all mean? Well, for one, it means that going into this weekend's game against Buffalo, Beck will only have participated in a total of 6 practices in which he received half of the starter's reps. He's only been actively practicing with the Miami offensive scheme since Week 6 - all of his work before then was running the scout team offense.

Clearly, by no fault of his own, Beck just needs more time in practice to work on the gameplan that his team will actually be employing in a game. Folks, this is what it's like to develop a QB. It takes time and patience - qualities that most fans lack. It's not going to help Beck's development by just throwing him into a real game situation and hoping he adapts. His introduction to game action should only come once he's established a command of the offense in practice. I really don't think that 6 practices with half of the reps is enough time to accomplish that. Before this season even began, I cautioned against using Beck at all this year, save for perhaps a game or two at the very end of the season. Those expectations weren't based on an estimated record and being winless shouldn't change the plans.

And let's not forget what Cameron's speciality is. If he knows nothing else, at least Cameron can truthfully be called a QB guru. He understands how to bring a young prospect along. He will know when the time is right to give Beck his shot.

As for the argument that the team needs to see what it has in Beck now so that it can decide if it needs to select another QB with their top pick in the draft, that's baloney. This team is not using it's top pick on a QB. The coaching staff has already put its confidence in Beck and you can't decide the value of a rookie QB by half a dozen starts. If he falters mightily next season in extended playing time, fine, then the scouts should start looking at top prospects, but not until then.

There's also a theory going around that Cameron is only sticking with Lemon as the starter until the team notches its first victory. Lemon is more experienced, and so he provides the team with a greater chance to win. The argument is that Cameron is only thinking about himself, because he doesn't want to be the first coach to lead a team to an 0-16 record.

I don't agree with that theory. Even so, is it so wrong to want to avoid going winless for an entire season? Is there really that much of a difference between 1-15 and 0-16? Yes, a huge difference. The simple fact of creating negative history and instantly becoming an embarassing trivia answer will haunt these players, these coaches, and this franchise for a long, long time. New players will be continually hounded by questions about the Imperfect Perfection. For a team that is desparately trying to transform a culture of losing, the seemingly insignificant difference of a single win could mean all the world.

Everyone in Miami needs to settle down over this issue. If John Beck is the future of this franchise, as most of us believe, his development should be given all the time in the world to play out naturally.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Midseason Evaluation: Free Agents

With the bye week upon us and eight games already in the books, it is now a good time to assess the major free agent acquisitions that the front office made during the offseason. Below, I've made tables to compare how the new players are doing this season in comparison to the guys they replaced. In the case of David Martin, I also added in Justin Peelle's stats for additional context and comparison.

Let's get right to it:

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Strong side linebacker: Joey Porter vs. Donnie Spragan


Age
2007 Salary
Games
Starts
Total Tackles
Solo
Ast
Sacks
PDef
Int
Joey Porter
30
$3,850,000
8
7
26
23
3
1
2
0
Donnie Spragan
31
$800,000
8
1
18
11
7
0
0
0

Assessment: Joey Porter has been a huge disappointment so far. The team forked over $20 million in guaranteed money for this guy, and he is barely outperforming his backup...who has started 6 fewer games. Oh yeah, Porter is also costing the team $3 million more this year than Spragan. No one wanted to see Spragan retain his starting job this season, but his replacement isn't performing any better. There is still absolutely no playmaking potential from the SLB spot, and again Jason Taylor has been forced to deal with double and even triple teams. There are a few defenses for Porter's lack of production, however, including his preseason knee surgery and Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers' abandonment of last year's aggressive and blitz-heavy packages. Porter is not a down lineman, yet he's been forced to play as one for much of the season. Capers' needs to find ways to stand him up and rush him off the edge. I don't think that Porter is completely finished, but he's certainly reached a point of no return as far as being a star player.

Grade: D-

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Tight End: David Martin vs. Randy McMichael


Age
2007 Salary
Games
Starts
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Catch %
David Martin
28
$586,980
7
7
15
111
7.4
2
75%
Randy McMichael
28
$5,000,000
8
7
19
248
13.1
1
53%
Justin Peelle
28
$1,804,290
8
3
17
149
8.8
2
69%

Assessment: When Miami acquired David Martin to be its starting tight end, I cautioned everyone to not assume that he would become the next Antonio Gates. People were quick to jump on his "potential", but in reality, he was a 28 year old who very likely had already realized his maximum abilities. What we saw of him in Green Bay, is exactly what we are getting from him now. In fact, even as a starter, he's putting up backup-type numbers. The injury-bug label that followed him here established itself immediately, and he's always dealing with some sort of muscle issue. The guy he replaced - Randy McMichael - is outperforming him, but not by a whole lot. One major redeeming aspect of the switch is the salary relief. Martin is costing the Dolphins almost $4.5 million less than McMichael is costing the Rams. In that sense, this was a good move. But, then we look at Martin's backup, Justin Peelle. Primarily known as a blocking tight end, Peelle is putting up better receiving numbers than Martin. He actually looks like an all-around better player than Martin. I think he should get the chance to be the team's starter either at some point this season or next, if the team can't bring in somebody better through free agency or the draft.

Grade: C-

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Kicker: Jay Feely vs. Olindo Mare


Age
Games
FG Att
FGM
Blk
Pct
XP Att
XPM
Pct
KO
Avg
TB
Ret
Avg
Jay Feely
31
8
14
13
0
92.9
17
17
100
39
60.6
5
30
29.8
Olindo Mare
34
7
8
4
1
50.0
16
16
100
19
66.1
7
12
23.8

Assessment: There's very little not to like about this move. Feely is tied for the third most accurate kicker this season among kickers who have attempted more than 5 FGs. He's only missed one kick all year. In addition, he's become somewhat of a team leader and is three years younger than Mare. The only area that Feely lags behind Mare in is kickoff length. We all knew that would be the case when the switch was made. However, I'd much rather have a kicker who is making over 90% of his FGs instead of one who is only making half of them. The coaching staff definitely saw that Mare's days were over, and they made a great deal by trading him away for a draft pick.

Grade: A+

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Dolphins-Giants: Game Analysis


Here are the three keys to the game that I outlined prior to past Sunday's game against the Giants:
  1. Maintain a ground game in the absence of Ronnie Brown
  2. Contain Plaxico Burress
  3. Keep the game close
I thought that if the team was able to accomplish these three things, they would have a pretty good chance of winning the game.

How did the team do according to this checklist?

Jesse Chatman ran 16 times for 79 yards, an impressive 4.9 yard per carry average, and Patrick Cobbs chipped in with 4 carries for 19 yards. The team stayed with its running game and was rewarded with some good play. Plaxico Burress was stifled all day long, being held to a mere 2 catches for 14 yards. And going into halftime, Miami had yet to score, but was still only down by 13. Check, check, and check.

Somewhat amazingly (as amazing as it can be for an 0-7 team), the Dolphins lost yet again.

The main factor, of course, was the weather. Now, I'm not one to blame the outcome of games on the weather. After all, both teams had to deal with it. But it just goes to show that when the weather is this pervasive, it throws all preconceived notions out the window. The field was a disaster, and it looked like the game was being played on a hockey rink. The defensive line literally slid backward at least a foot on every snap simply because there was no leverage to be had on the playing surface.

So, in the driving rain of London, the Dolphins completed the first half of their season in the same fashion as the preceding U.S.-based games - with a loss.

Here's a quick list of what was good and what was bad across the pond:

The Bad
Run defense - The major sore spot on the defense continued again, as the Giants averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 37 carries.

Cleo Lemon - I can't blame everything bad that happened on Cleo, since it was pretty much impossible to get a good grip on the ball given the conditions. Still, he's got to find a way to overcome the external situations. Also, not throwing the ball away and tacking a sack after getting the ball to the 2 yard line was a poor decision that cannot be excused.

The Good
The offensive line - Going up against one of the most fearsome pass rushes in the league, Miami's O-line gave up only one sack. They also opened up some nice running lanes for Chatman.

Jesse Chatman - Chatman showed some serious spunk, grinding his legs and picking up some tough yardage. He runs with a determined effort, and he's proving that he deserves a spot on this team long-term.

The secondary - The secondary really stepped up and finally was able to make some big plays against quality receivers. Burress was a non-factor all game long, thanks to great athletic plays downfield by the likes of Will Allen and Michael Lehan. Even Jason Allen made an impact with 5 tackles and a forced fumble. He would have had an INT too, if not for a bad call by the refs for holding on Jason Taylor.

Justin Peelle - Peelle is a guy who shows up every week and catches almost every ball thrown in his direction and grinds it out in the trenches as a good blocker. He never gets much credit because he's the backup tight end and he doesn't get all that many touches. But he always makes the most of his opportunities, and when David Martin couldn't play in this game, Peelle came through with 6 catches for 42 yards. He showed the ability to consistently get open in the flats and across the middle and to pick up some nifty yards after the catch. (On a side note, it's clear that the front office made a mistake in bringing in David Martin to be the starter. Martin's inability to shake the injury bug has surfaced yet again, and he is being outplayed by Peelle, who is primarily known for being a blocking tight end.)

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Play of the Game - Eli Manning's 10 yard run for a TD. Manning outran Jason Taylor on the play to score the Giants' only TD.

Player of the Game - Brandon Jacobs. Given the conditions, running the ball was key. Jacobs delivered by putting up 131 yards on 23 carries for an outstanding 5.7 yard average.