Ronnie Brown done for the year; Week 11 @ Carolina Prediction

Well, this sucks.

Ronnie Brown has been placed on Injured Reserve. So he's done for the year. It's believed that his injury is a Lisfranc fracture. It's unknown what kind of timetable there is on his injury, but that will depend on whether Brown opts for surgery or extended rest. It seems likely that he will undergo surgery to correct the problem. He could miss parts of training camp next offseason.

And for those people who continue to say that Brown is just unlucky when it comes to getting hurt, I'm sorry but no. He's injury-prone. And that's a major reason why this team probably shouldn't make any long-term investment in Brown. We all love him, but his age and injury history simply present too much risk and downside to hand him a huge contract extension.

*****

As for tonight's game, even without Brown, I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 6-3.

Miami's playoff chances currently stand at 12%

Practice squad update 11/18

Miami has re-signed LB J.D. Folsom to its practice squad after releasing him before last week's game.

Last week, the team also signed RB Tristan Davis to its practice squad.

Davis (5'10, 212) is an undrafted rookie out of Auburn. He is a speed-back who didn't get a whole lot of carries in college, but he is a weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. He's also very dangerous as a kick and punt returner. The return game is where he made the biggest impact in college.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

• DE Ryan Baker
• CB Will Billingsley
• WR Julius Pruit
• T Andrew Hartline
• S Nate Ness
• TE John Nalbone
• RB Tristan Davis
  
• LB J.D. Folsom
  

Reader Questions 11/17

I got some good questions from a reader that I'd like to address here today:

How do you rate the Dolphins offensive line? Is the NT position a need for the 2010 draft? Do you think that Cameron Wake will continue to improve? If Ronnie is out for a while isn't that a major problem for the offense?

Let's take them one-by-one.

1. The offensive line
Just looking at how successful the running game has been overall this season, I'd have to say that the unit has been pretty good. Of course, we've seen the running game stall on more than one occasion, which has led to the offense completely bogging down. So consistency is an issue that must improve. But let's look at the unit's numbers (through Week 9):

• 4.42 Adjusted Line Yards (4th best in NFL)
• Power Success - 81% (1st)
• Stuffed - 14% (1st)
• Adjusted Sack Rate - 9% (26th in NFL)

Well, those numbers paint a pretty clear picture don't they? Miami's offensive line is an elite juggernaut in the running game. Those Power and Stuffed percentages are pristine, and are huge reasons why this offense is able to sustain long drives without a dynamic passing game. If your running game can always be counted on to convert short yardage situations and likewise never get stuffed behind the line, you have a scary rushing attack.

Now the pass protection is another story. Miami's QBs have been sacked 23 times this season and the adjusted sack rate of 9% is atrocious. The offensive line definitely has played a part in this mess, but I think a lot of blame has to lie with Chad Henne's inexperience and inability to make quick reads and get rid of the ball quickly when the pocket is collapsing. He seems to be getting better in that regard, but it will take some time to develop his pocket awareness.

I will say this as well: I absolutely hammered the team's decision to sign Jake Grove this offseason. So far, he's proven me dead wrong. He's been a pleasant surprise. Of course, a lot of that has to do with him bucking a career-long trend of injury woes, so we will have to wait and see how long that continues. But right now, I'm more than happy to eat crow.

2. Nose Tackle
Although Paul Soliai has definitely made vast improvements in his play this season, the nose tackle position remains a high priority for this year's draft. That's because Miami's 3-4 defense requires a stud at the position and can't get by being simply average. Hopefully, Jason Ferguson will decide to play another year for Miami so that the team is not pressured into reaching too highly in the draft for his replacement. There will be plenty of top prospects at the position, so one or two should inevitably be available when Miami is picking. Of course, there's another scenario that Miami could explore should Ferguson decide to hang up his cleats after this year, and that's free agency. Possible nose tackle options that may be available on the free agent market include Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, Ryan Pickett, and Aubrayo Franklin among others. If Miami could land any of those guys to pair with Soliai, they could save that draft pick for some other position (cough*receiver*cough).

3. Cameron Wake
Wake's already made visible improvements from game to game this season, so I would expect that to continue. The question I have with him now is what is his ceiling? Can he be a future starter at OLB or at least a primary backup? That's hard to answer, because unlike so many first-year players, Wake is already 27 years old. He turns 28 in January. So he still definitely has plenty of good years left, but it will be critical to see how high he can push his abilities.

4. Ronnie Brown
Losing Brown hurts. He's been the team's best player this season. So his loss will obviously affect the offense, but I don't think it will hurt as much as some are fearing. And that's solely due to who his backup is. You see, according to DYAR, Ricky Williams is only trailing Ronnie by a count of 124 to 120. Those numbers are essentially equal and are good for 7th and 8th best in the league. And Ricky is actually beating Ronnie in DVOA (24.3% to 12.7%). So while we may be losing an elite running back for a game or more, we are replacing his carries with another elite back. The big problem comes when you take the leftover carries that Ricky can't take all by himself and spread them among Lex Hilliard and possibly Lousake Polite. The Wildcat will also be hindered since Ricky is not nearly as good a triggerman in the formation as Ronnie is, and someone new will have to take over Ricky's role as the Wildcat coming around on the sweep. So Brown's loss will hurt, but it's not nearly insurmountable.

2009 First Half Review and Awards

Before the Dolphins embark on the second half schedule of the 2009 season today, I wanted to take one last look back on what has transpired in the first half.

And frankly, almost nothing of what has happened has surprised me.

I've seen some bloggers talk about how Miami's 3-5 record at the halfway point should mark a shift in expectations for the rest of the year - a tempering of playoff expectations if you will. But if you have been a realistic fan and observer of this team, you shouldn't have to change your expectations because this team is pretty much exactly where we expected them to be at this point.

But of course, those same people who call for a lowering of expectations only now, after the fact, are the same ones who were pumping this team up to be another double-digit win squad before the year began. That's because it's easier to ignore all the critical signs about a team and only accept the reality of the situation when the outcomes inevitably match the rational predictions.

And injuries are no excuse. Chad Pennington has never had two healthy or effective seasons in a row. Absolutely no one should have been banking on him playing up to last year's level or remaining healthy for the whole season. And guess what, he did neither. That's just what the tea leaves wrote, and anyone could have seen it coming if they opened their eyes to it. Same thing goes for Channing Crowder, Jason Ferguson, Justin Smiley, etc. These players have all been hampered recently by injuries. An incredible run of injury luck last season was not going to carry forward into this year.

Also, a lot of people simply wrote off the talk of Miami having a brutal schedule this year by saying, "Well, you can't judge a team based off last year's record, blah, blah, blah." But if you use a more predictive tool like DVOA, you'd have gotten the same prediction. And so, of course, Miami has indeed faced a brutal schedule up to this point. In fact, according to DVOA, Miami has played the toughest schedule in the league thus far. Their average opponent DVOA is 12.4%, which means Miami's schedule has been 12.4% harder than the average schedule so far. Compare that to New England, who has the 17th hardest schedule so far at 0.5% DVOA.

Thankfully, the schedule eases up considerably from here on out, with Miami's remaining opponents having an average DVOA of -2.0%. They are going to have to take advantage of that schedule if they are to have any chance of contending for the playoffs once again.

But there have been plenty of positives about this season too. Most notably has been the extensive run of play the rookies and youngsters have been receiving. That's a good sign for the future.

Let's move on to some half-season awards:

Offensive MVP: Ronnie Brown - this one's pretty obvious. The running game is this offense's weapon, and it's lead by Brown's powerful running and expert handling of the Wildcat package. The craziest thing may be that, as good as Brown's been, Ricky Williams has been nearly as good. I'd also give an honorable mention for this award to Justin Smiley who is, without a doubt, one of the premier interior linemen in the NFL. He is a joy to watch play.

Most Improved - Offense: Not really a whole lot to pick from here, but I'd go with either Chad Henne or Donald Thomas.

Most Regressed - Offense: Ted Ginn. Everyone expected some measure of improvement from Ginn this year, but he has regressed as badly as anyone on the team.

Best Rookie - Offense: Brian Hartline

Defensive MVP: Randy Starks. He's the only player putting consistent pressure on the QB, easily leading the team with 12.5 combined sacks+QB hits. He's making big plays for a defense that is sorely lacking in them. Honorable mention goes to Jason Ferguson.

Most Improved - Defense: Randy Starks

Most Regressed - Defense: Joey Porter. Just to show how far he's fallen, Tony Sparano has benched him for this week's game, and not because of injury. Porter's flat-out sucked this year. It's quite a fall from 17.5 sacks last year to this sorry output.

Best Rookie - Defense: Vontae Davis. Some will say Sean Smith, and while I won't argue with it (because I think he's been quite good) something just really bugs me about how scared of contact he is and just how much he shies away from hitting or getting hit. Also, he's yet to pick off a pass, and that was supposed to be his strong point. Davis, on the other hand, in less playing time has made some huge plays and also is not afraid at all to shed blocks and make huge hits near the line of scrimmage.

Week 10 vs. Buccaneers Prediction

I'm going to keep this prediction post short and sweet because quite frankly, I'm about as sure about this game as I have been about a Dolphins game in some time.

Miami will win this game easily.

Wow. When is the last time anyone could legitimately say that and not be thought foolish?

But it's true. Miami is a pretty good team right now and the Buccaneers are putrid. There really shouldn't be any trouble leaving this week behind with a win.

If Miami should somehow struggle, or even lose, well, the season's pretty much over at that point, I'd say. But I'm not worried about it. I don't view this as a trap game or anything like that. Miami just has to go out there, put in a hard day's work, and take care of its business.

I'm confident they will. I'm picking Miami to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 5-3.

After last week's loss, Miami's playoff chances fell to 14%

Folsom cut; Sperry called up

On Friday, the Dolphins opened up a roster spot by releasing LB J.D. Folsom who they had called up from the practice squad prior to last week's game against New England.

The open spot has been taken by TE Kory Sperry, who the team also called up from its practice squad.

Calling up Sperry may mean that Anthony Fasano's hip injury will sideline him on Sunday. If that is the case, Miami will have to rely on Joey Haynos and Sperry as the only two tight ends.

Pat White story

File this in the "things most of us already knew about Pat White" folder - he's a good kid.

And the Miami Herald's Jeff Darlington received an email from a Patriots fan who attended last week's game with his son talking about Pat's notable gesture before the game began. Here's the bulk of the email:

Hello,

I am a longtime New England Patriots Season Ticketholder who attended this past Sundays game against the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots held a pregame Veterans Day ceremony honoring veterans from the greater New England area. I am not a veteran but greatly appreciate the men and woman who dedicate their lives to protecting our country.

As the National Anthem came to a close I told my son to watch to see which of the Patriot Players approached the veterans being honored to thank them for their service. Unfortunately, the Patriots disappointed me. Not one of them acknowledged these men and woman. As the veterans left the field one Miami Dolphin, Pat White, jogged over to them and shook every one of their hands. It was the highlight of the game for me to see there is at least one player in the NFL that understands what these people have given up for us.

Even if a lot of the players met some of the service men and women on the field during warmups or whatnot, it's still nice to see a player take the time to personally shake every single one of their hands following the ceremony.

I'm just surprised Pat was the only player on either team who took the time to do it.